Demolition in the construction and public works sector during the 2023-2030 period - An estimate of the overall, diffuse sector
This study explains the method used to produce these projections and the results obtained. The aggregate of the overall demolition trends and estimates are given for the metropolis as a whole, but are also presented in the form of data sheets for each of the 12 Public Territorial Establishments (EPTs). They are based on the analysis of construction permits, which make it possible to calculate the rising trend of demolition throughout the Greater Paris - Grand Paris Metropolis - during the 2013-2022 period. This peaked in 2018, and was followed by a slump in 2020 that corresponded to a fall in activity linked to the Covid-19 pandemic. Activity has gradually picked since then.
On the basis of this trend and the weighting hypotheses made regarding the rate of construction, it is possible to draw up construction projections until 2030. The four hypotheses developed make it possible to estimate the type of demolition material produced in the greatest quantity in the overall sector between 2023 and 2030. The criteria selected for defining these hypotheses are: their closeness to Paris, how far they are from areas undergoing development operations, their distance from work on a public transport station, the urban fabric proportion of residential, individual housing.
By taking into account these various elements, Apur proposes 4 territorial scenarios which enable an estimation of demolition in this diffuse sector between 2023 and 2030 to be made: a first scenario of trends, two intermediate scenarios based on the hypotheses above, and a final ambitious scenario that assumes the generalisation of rehabilitation and thermal renovation that favours demolition-reconstruction. What emerges is that no matter which scenario is chosen, a low range estimate can be made that 5 million tons of construction waste will be generated by the varied demolition sites in Grand Paris Metropolis by 2030. This waste will be added to the estimated 16.6 million tons produced by ZACs and NPNRU.
